Benchmarking the AAA Curve Based on Recent AAA BWIC Colour
As shown in the first table below, DMs ranged from 102 to 122 and WALs from 0.82 to 2.43 years for selected tighter-print US BSL CLO AAA bonds that traded above par.
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As shown in the first table below, DMs ranged from 102 to 122 and WALs from 0.82 to 2.43 years for selected tighter-print US BSL CLO AAA bonds that traded above par.
Benchmarking EU CLO Pricing Across the Capital Stack
Benchmarking US BSL CLO Pricing Across the Capital Stack
The loan market rally has driven broad spread tightening across the CLO stack. Mezzanine tranches responded the most, reflecting their higher leverage and credit sensitivity. In contrast, senior tranches from top-tier CLOs showed a beta below 1.0, indicating a more muted reaction to loan spread moves.
This article includes several tables showing the average annualised prepayment rates for each seasoned manager in the first, second, third, and fourth years of the post-reinvestment period (post-RP), as well as post-RP prepayment rates for individual deals. The sample includes deals that had exited their reinvestment periods by 31 December 2024.
A sample of 409 seasoned deals (2015–2019* vintage deals) is included in this study. The benchmark loan index used is the Morningstar LSTA U.S. B/BB Ratings Loan Index.
In year-to-date 2025 and throughout 2024, managers have, on average, broadly tracked the loan index across all three inception-to-date annualised metrics: total return, market value (MV) return, and interest return. The benchmark loan index used is the Morningstar LSTA U.S. B/BB Ratings Loan Index. Nonetheless, several managers—such as OHA, Golub Capital, and UBS AM—have continued to distinguish themselves with above-average inception-to-date alpha since 2020, while others have consistently lagged behind the index.
The table below presents the annualised (orig) prepayment rates for seasoned EU CLO deals with reinvestment periods (RP) ending in 2022 across the first, second, third, and fourth years post-RP. Typically, deals experience a single-digit prepayment rate in the first year post-RP. The median post-RP prepayment rate increased to 21.3%, although the range of post-RP prepayment rates is wide.
While the Morningstar LSTA US B/BB Ratings Loan Index has recovered to just below 97 today—after hitting a low of...
Whether it makes sense or not depends on the WAP of the CLO portfolio purchased. The table below illustrates the arbitrage levels under various WAP scenarios.
Weakness in the loan market has led to a broad-based widening of discount margins across the CLO capital structure, with lower mezzanine tranches exhibiting the greatest spread sensitivity — reflecting their structurally leveraged exposure to underlying credit risk. By contrast, senior tranches (AAA/AA) of top-tier primary CLOs show a beta of less than 0.3 to loan market movements, indicating more muted spread volatility in response to changes in collateral spreads. Trinitas Euro CLO IX priced particularly well, achieving a WACC of just 205 bps, supported by solid pricing on the AAA and AA tranches.
This suggests that mezzanine and equity US CLO tranches are likely to become significantly more volatile than before. As of the time of writing, nearly 20% of US BSL CLO deals from the 2012–2013 vintages have MVOCs below 100%. With MVOCs under pressure, the reset market may effectively be closed to most seasoned deals.
Weakness in the loan market has led to a broad-based widening of discount margins across the U.S. CLO capital structure. Lower mezzanine tranches have shown the greatest sensitivity to spread movements, reflecting their structurally leveraged exposure to underlying credit risk. In contrast, senior tranches (AAA/AA) and the single-A tranche exhibit a beta of less than 1.0 to loan market movements, indicating more moderate spread volatility in response to changes in collateral spreads.
This article focuses on US BSL CLO deals that exited their reinvestment period (RP) in 2023, based on a sample of 386 deals. As shown in the table below, the median annualised prepayment rate was 20% in year 1, with a wide range—from 12% to 27%—based on the 25th and 75th percentiles. In year 2, the median annualised prepayment rate rose to 34%, while the interquartile range narrowed compared to year 1.
As these deals exited their reinvestment periods in 2022—a year marked by significant volatility—27 out of 67 managers sustained average single-digit annualised prepayment rates across their deals in the first year post-RP, as shown in the table below.
