Optimal Entry Points in US CLO Mezzanine Tranches: A Historical Excess-Return Analysis
This article examines when it is typically a good time to enter the CLO mezzanine market.
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This article examines when it is typically a good time to enter the CLO mezzanine market.
Last Thursday saw a remarkable surge in activity, with around US$1.5 billion of US CLO AAAs traded across 62 tranches — averaging around US$24 million per line item and underscoring the market’s deep liquidity.
Around 180 EU CLO deals have been reset at least once since the reset market reopened in September 2023, following a hiatus with no resets priced between April 2022 and August 2023. Of these 180 deals, 71 included additional equity notional at reset, amounting to a combined total of around €1.1 billion.
The table below shows the additional equity notional across reset deals by manager. Among US BSL CLO platforms, Carlyle, Ares, Neuberger Berman, UBS AM, BSP, and CIFC each saw more than...
Across a sample of 238 US BSL CLO deals from the 2018 vintage, average realised AAA WALs have come in shorter than modelled. Refinanced deals shortened the most (by around 1.36 years), liquidated or reset deals were 0.18 years shorter, while the 62 still-outstanding deals are projected to run slightly longer, by about 0.33 years. Overall, the vintage is expected to deliver an average AAA WAL of 5.70 years, roughly 0.42 years shorter than originally modelled.
Single-B tranches, given their position as second-loss in the CLO structure, are particularly exposed to idiosyncratic risk and may face heightened scrutiny in the aftermath of the First Brands episode.
A review of 65 CLO deals from the 2017–2018 vintages shows that realised WALs for senior AAA tranches averaged 5.65 years, around 0.15 years longer than modelled at issuance. While some deals delivered shorter WALs—benefiting investors given the typically upward-sloping AAA term curve—others faced significant extensions to the disadvantage of AAA holders.
Among the top 20 global CLO managers by collateral assets under management (as of 30 June 2025), 11 have no exposure (or only minimal exposure) to First Brands in either their US or EU CLOs. Notably, some global managers show exposure in their US CLOs but not in their EU CLOs (or only minimal exposure), and vice versa.
This article examines how US CLO managers’ performance has been affected by their exposure to First Brands. Around 991 deals across 67 US CLO managers have exposure to First Brands, with a median deal exposure of 0.51%. For 90% of these deals, exposure falls between 0.16% and 1.26%.
Around 193 deals across 23 EU CLO managers have exposure to First Brands, with median deal exposure of 0.62%. The impact on MVOC rankings differs by manager. The table below highlights changes in rankings for these 23 managers since 5 September 2025.
The table below presents the average annualised prepayment rates for each seasoned manager during the first, second, third, and fourth years of the post-reinvestment period (post-RP). The sample includes deals that had exited their reinvestment periods by 31 December 2024. Deals that were called or reset are also included, reflecting their pre-call and pre-reset historical post-RP prepayment rates.
Loan Repricing Pressures Persist with Rising Par-and-Above Bucket
Please refer to the table below, which shows the 2.0 BSL CLO AUM trends for each US BSL CLO manager since 2012. The AUM (in billions of dollars) for each period is based on CLO deal pricing dates and the notional of the underlying collateral, rather than CLO liability notional. For consistency, the AUM figures for each manager have been adjusted to reflect mergers and acquisitions as well as changes in management contracts. The top ten US BSL CLO managers are Blackstone, Carlyle, UBS AM, CIFC, RRAM, Octagon, Ares, Neuberger Berman, Sound Point, and Elmwood. As of 30 June 2025, 33 managers oversaw at least $10 billion of BSL CLO AUM, with 12 of them managing $20 billion or more.
Investors and CLO managers may email info@clopremium.co.uk to request a copy of this article.
Among the 19 EU CLO deals priced since then, top-tier (tightest 10%) pricing for AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, and B tranches was 131.4, 190, 219, 300, 550, and 850 bps, respectively.
