CLO Research

CLOs are primarily actively managed, and some commonly used deal metrics—point-in-time indicators—can occasionally be misleading. While these metrics can be useful, they should not be considered in isolation. Additionally, combining multiple metrics does not necessarily provide a clearer picture. For example, the weighted average price (WAP) of a CLO portfolio does not measure return performance over time and can be artificially inflated by trading activity. Though WAP is helpful for quick screening, it is not a reliable indicator of whether one manager has outperformed another. The same applies to annual equity distributions—a higher distribution does not necessarily indicate better manager performance. Therefore, combining these two metrics does not necessarily offer a more accurate assessment of a manager's performance.

All things being equal, lower mezzanine tranche investors typically prefer to own deals with a higher probability of being reset.

It might be assumed that managers with higher Weighted Average Spreads (WAS) tend to carry a higher collateral risk profile and, on average, experience greater realised and unrealised principal losses when adjusted for vintage. Conversely, more conservative managers with lower WAS often demonstrate greater resilience, leading to lower levels of principal loss, also adjusted for vintage. However, a lower WAS does not always indicate a cleaner US BSL CLO collateral pool.

Please find below the estimated US CLO equity IRRs of a sample of 117 US CLO deals that were redeemed in 2024 year-to-date, categorized by vintage. An issue price of $95 is assumed.

To calculate the total/MV/interest return alpha, we begin by determining the total/MV/interest investment return for each complete period, such as from a deal’s closing date to the most recent reporting date. This is achieved by compounding the portfolio’s monthly (or periodic) total/MV/interest return since the closing date. We then annualise the total/MV/interest portfolio return and compare it with the annualised return of the index. The difference represents the total/MV/interest return alpha, as illustrated here.

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