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US CLO Arbitrage

As of 9 February 2026, the arbitrage metric for non-short-dated US CLOs has improved, reflecting a widening four-week moving-average loan discounted spread alongside tight liability prints. At approximately 173 bps, this has returned to levels last seen in early July 2025.

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US BSL CLOs: Idiosyncratic Risk Buckets in Collateral Pools

The analysis covers 1,719 US BSL CLO deals across vintages from 2012 to 1H 2025, excluding deals with a collateral pool factor below 55%. Based on asset prices as at 5 February 2026, the overall median below-80 exposure stood at 4.7%, which is elevated from a CLO equity perspective. Such exposures are typically penalised in cashflow modelling, weighing on CLO equity valuations.

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US CLO Arbitrage — Little Room to Breathe (Updated)

AAA tranches continue to lag the broader spread-compression trend. While top-tier BB tranches have tightened to around 430 DM, AAA levels, at 117 bps, remain wider than the 113 bps seen in February 2025. This has pushed the AAA–BB pricing differential to a new record tight of roughly 317 bps in the CLO 2.0 market.

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EU CLOs: Monitoring Idiosyncratic Risk Buckets in Collateral Pools

Tracking exposure to underlying CLO collateral priced below 80 and 70 can serve as a useful proxy for assessing tail risk within the asset pool. While this metric has inherent limitations—most notably that it does not capture stressed or distressed positions that have already been traded out of the collateral pools—it nevertheless provides a timely and standardised snapshot of downside risk embedded within CLO collateral portfolios.

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