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US BSL CLOs: Weekly Arbitrage Metrics and AAA Spreads

The loan index's moving 4-week average discounted spreads are used as a proxy for the discounted spreads of US BSL CLO portfolios. On average, seasoned US BSL CLO managers have closely tracked the return performance of this loan index across all three metrics: annualized total returns, MV returns, and interest returns.

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Monitor: US BSL CLO New Issue Arbitrage Trend Since 2017 (Updated)

The loan index’s moving 4-week average discounted spreads are used as a proxy for the discounted spreads of US BSL CLO portfolios. If the index prices fell below 96, 4-year discounted asset spreads were used instead of spreads to maturity. Arbitrage refers to the index’s discounted spread net of the cost of funding, based on discount margins (of AAA–BB tranches of top-tier deals) rather than spreads. New issue upfront costs and management fees are not accounted for. The loan index used for this analysis is the Morningstar LSTA US B-BB Ratings Loan Index.

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Strong Loan Markets and Rising Demand: A Record Year for US CLOs in 2024

As illustrated in the table below, it is unsurprising that when the underlying loan market was strong, more CLO deals were liquidated, institutional loan issuance increased—providing additional collateral assets for CLO creation—and demand for CLOs grew as investors became more optimistic about the credit outlook. Combined with a higher interest rate environment and greater demand for floating-rate assets, these factors contributed to a record-breaking year for new issue CLO volume in 2024.

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US BSL CLOs: Weekly Arbitrage Metrics and AAA Spreads

Asset spreads play a significant role in influencing AAA issuance spreads, though the relationship is not always perfectly linear due to factors such as the demand and supply of AAA notes. This article notes that current top-tier AAA levels, at approximately 124–126 bps, are elevated compared to historical norms.

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Resets: Successful Seasoned US BSL CLO Managers

Since the reset window reopened in mid-2023, managers have actively utilised the reset market to extend the duration of their existing deals. Impressively, seven managers successfully reset at least 10 of their seasoned deals spanning the 2013–2021 vintages. Among them, Oak Hill and CIFC stand out, having reset 15–16 of their seasoned deals during this period.

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