The table below illustrates the latest number and changes in the number of post-2012 US CLO deals that have failed at least one of the key tests—interest diversion, overcollateralization, or interest coverage tests—categorized by vintage.
The full list of US CLO deals failing OC/IC tests is shown in the table below.
Excess CCC buckets, defaults, discount obligations, and losses from trading can all reduce the OC ratio. Typically, OC test cushions decrease over time as deals mature. The tables above display the OC (BB) test cushions, segmented by vintage year, based on Intex runs from January 22, 2024, and previously from November 17, 2023.
Typically, deals with high OC (BB) test cushions are expected to perform well, though this is not always the case. The median deal with an OC test cushion of 4 to 5 percentage points performed well, achieving 15 basis points (bp) of alpha. Deals with a small OC test cushion experienced more significant underperformance. Among deals with less than 1 percentage point of cushion, approximately three-quarters performed poorer than the loan index.
The table above displays the most recent minimum OC (BB or BBB) test cushions, segmented by vintage year. Interestingly, with the exception of deals from the 2015 vintage, the median deals from each vintage have demonstrated improvement from their levels at inception.
Unsurprisingly, the median 2014 vintage deal has the worst OC test cushion, underscoring the challenges of the 2014 vintage. Excluding 2012 deals due to their low count, the 2013 vintage has the next worst test cushion given that these deals have been outstanding for an extended period. Notably, the median 2018 vintage deal has a concerning test cushion of approximately 1.6 points, indicating a sizable erosion of principal value. This would negatively impact final equity IRRs. It appears that whenever there is a record issuance year, performance is somewhat affected.
