Basic

While this piece is no longer as timely given the recent market rout, it still offers some noteworthy insights.

Weakness in the loan market has led to a broad-based widening of discount margins across the U.S. CLO capital structure. Lower mezzanine tranches have shown the greatest sensitivity to spread movements, reflecting their structurally leveraged exposure to underlying credit risk. In contrast, senior tranches (AAA/AA) and the single-A tranche exhibit a beta of less than 1.0 to loan market movements, indicating more moderate spread volatility in response to changes in collateral spreads.

This article focuses on US BSL CLO deals that exited their reinvestment period (RP) in 2023, based on a sample of 386 deals. As shown in the table below, the median annualised prepayment rate was 20% in year 1, with a wide range—from 12% to 27%—based on the 25th and 75th percentiles. In year 2, the median annualised prepayment rate rose to 34%, while the interquartile range narrowed compared to year 1.

As these deals exited their reinvestment periods in 2022—a year marked by significant volatility—27 out of 67 managers sustained average single-digit annualised prepayment rates across their deals in the first year post-RP, as shown in the table below.

The table in this premium article provides the post-RP annualized prepayment rates for each deal in the sample, offering a detailed comparison of how quickly different deals paid down after their reinvestment period ended.

The table presented in this premium article showcases the trends by displaying the average annual prepayment rates for the first, second, and third years for each manager. These rates are calculated from seasoned deals whose reinvestment periods concluded before April 2024.