Basic Premium

A sample of 1,405 US BSL CLO deals (vintage 2013–2023) is included in this study. Deals with a collateral pool...

A sample of 492 EU CLO deals (vintage 2013–1H 2024) is included in this study. Deals with a collateral pool...

With the rally in loan prices, the number of US BSL CLO deals with negative equity NAV has declined from 317 to 168 since 21 April 2025. Among single-B tranches, the number with a market value over-collateralisation (MVOC) below 100% has fallen from 169 to 126 over the same period.

In year-to-date 2025 and throughout 2024, managers have, on average, broadly tracked the loan index across all three inception-to-date annualised metrics: total return, market value (MV) return, and interest return. The benchmark loan index used is the Morningstar LSTA U.S. B/BB Ratings Loan Index. Nonetheless, several managers—such as OHA, Golub Capital, and UBS AM—have continued to distinguish themselves with above-average inception-to-date alpha since 2020, while others have consistently lagged behind the index.

With loan prices recovering to levels close to those seen before Liberation Day tariffs, a sizable equity BWIC list finally emerged last week after the April payment dates. It featured many high-quality equity tranches managed by top-tier managers such as Oak Hill Advisors, UBS AM, and CIFC.

This article highlights the softer CLO equity bids since late 2024/early 2025 and notes that not all resets are accretive.

Please see the table in this article for a list of EU CLO managers and the trends in their average percentiles since 28 March 2025.

Please see the table in this article for a list of US BSL CLO managers and the trends in their average percentiles since 28 March 2025.

Last Thursday (24 April 2025) saw 27 tranches of EU CLO AA bonds, with a total notional of €61.5 million, traded via BWIC. The table below provides colour on some of the AA bonds with top-tier prints. Based on these covers and a simple extrapolation, the term structure of EU AA bonds would appear as shown in the second table.

The table below presents the annualised (orig) prepayment rates for seasoned EU CLO deals with reinvestment periods (RP) ending in 2022 across the first, second, third, and fourth years post-RP. Typically, deals experience a single-digit prepayment rate in the first year post-RP. The median post-RP prepayment rate increased to 21.3%, although the range of post-RP prepayment rates is wide.

Around 34% of single-B tranches from the 2012–2022 vintages had an MVOC below 100% even before the recent volatility triggered by the Liberation Day tariffs. As of 24 April 2025, that figure has risen to 40%, or 151 deals across 49 managers, as shown in the table below.

While the Morningstar LSTA US B/BB Ratings Loan Index has recovered to just below 97 today—after hitting a low of...

Tuesday’s BWIC colour included three distressed bonds originally rated single-B: two were covered at 31h, and one at around 10h. Discount margins were not reported, as it is highly unlikely these bonds will be repaid at par—an IRR-based approach would be more appropriate. Pricing these thin tranches remains particularly challenging, as even a small change in the underlying collateral NAV can significantly affect their value.

Market Value Over-Collateralization (MVOC), for instance, at the BB tranche level, is calculated by dividing the collateral market value (MV) by the sum of CLO liabilities (AAA to BB). MVOC is a crucial point-in-time metric for pricing CLO-rated tranches, closely monitored by primary and secondary market participants.

Market Value Over-Collateralization (MVOC), for instance, at the BB tranche level, is calculated by dividing the collateral market value (MV) by the sum of CLO liabilities (AAA to BB). MVOC is a key point-in-time metric for valuing CLO-rated tranches, widely tracked by participants in both primary and secondary markets.