The recent pricing of a 5-year reinvestment period deal – OHA Credit Funding 16 CLO – heralds a new tight BB level (SOFR + 675DM) since late 2015, when Madison Park Funding XVIII’s BB tranche was priced at 635DM (based on LIBOR), adjusting for market conditions.
When looking at the alpha performance in each category, it's clear that larger EU CLO managers are not doing worse than their smaller peers. In fact, they performed slightly better.
The chart below depicts the average alpha metric trends for deals with horizontal slice risk retention (manager's retention) and deals with vertical strip risk retention (third-party majority equity). Interestingly, deals with vertical strip risk retention consistently outperformed their counterparts. However, more recently, their median performance metrics have shown convergence. As of the latest reading on September 6, 2023, the median deal with horizontal slice risk retention slightly outperformed the median deal with vertical strip risk retention.
The table in this article displays the relative ranking of each EU CLO manager, determined by their quarterly average total alpha metrics. For instance, a manager with a score of 81% (for 3Q 2023) implies that their total return alpha is in the 81st percentile. In other words, the manager's annualised total return alpha metric (since inception) exceeds that of 81% of its peers.
The table in this article illustrates the relative ranking of each EU CLO manager based on their quarterly average MV alpha metrics. For instance, a manager with a score of 82% (for 3Q2023) indicates that its MV return alpha is positioned at the 82nd percentile. In other words, the manager's MV return alpha metric surpasses that of 82% of its peers.
Estimating long-term annual default rates and an average recovery rate is an intricate process. At CLO Research, we employ the loan index to aid in estimating the annual credit loss rate inputs required for CLO cashflow modelling. This credit loss rate incorporates factors such as prepayment, trading losses, and reinvestment.
Investing in discounted BB-rated CLO tranches can yield significant rewards in the following scenarios:
Debt investors generally prefer a quicker prepayment rate, as this results in a faster pull to par. Conversely, a slower prepayment rate would lead to a longer duration of the debt tranches and potentially higher price volatility if the MVOC is also low. On the other hand, CLO equity investors would prefer to see low prepayment rates, especially during the first two years following the reinvestment period.
The WACC for the most recent US BSL CLO reset deal was priced at approximately 228 basis points (bp). The table below lists a total of 96 deals from 2022 with a WACC exceeding 240 bp. These deals offer a potential cost savings of at least 12 bp. This figure aligns with the cost savings of 12 bp, which corresponds to the 25th percentile, observed in the reset pricing of 2019 vintage deals.
The WACC for the most recent EU CLO deal, which included a single-B tranche, was priced at approximately 285 basis points (bp). The table below outlines a total of 20 deals from 2022 that feature a WACC exceeding 294 bp. These deals present a potential cost savings of at least 9 bp. This figure aligns with the cost savings of 9 bp, which corresponds to the 25th percentile, observed in the reset pricing of 2019 vintage deals.
Despite the EU's lower interest rate environment, we have observed that EU CLO equity tranches in reset deals have exhibited higher median annual distributions than their US counterparts across vintages from 2013 to 2015 and 2017 to 2018.
US CLOs generally enjoy a competitive edge over their EU counterparts in the realm of equity distributions, primarily due to a more favorable interest rate environment in the U.S. Nevertheless, despite the disadvantage posed by the EU's lower interest rate environment, CLO deals from 2017 and 2018 in the EU display notably better NIM and first distribution metrics. These strong figures effectively offset this drawback, as highlighted by their robust annual distributions.
The due diligence list could be endless. The objective of dedicating many hours to due diligence is to select a manager who not only performs well but also does so consistently. A proven track record of delivering strong investment performance—not merely presenting compelling deal metrics—is key.
Non-reset seasoned deals from 2012 to 2016 exhibited considerably poorer performance compared to their reset counterparts.
Below are tables presenting the MVOC (AAA-B) and EQ NAV of EU CLO deals by vintage, based on asset prices...
