CLO Research

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Historical Pricing of US BSL CLO BB Tranches Across Various Market Conditions

To provide context for the DM (discount margin) figures, consider the following: when the spread of the 4-week Morningstar LSTA U.S. B/BB Ratings Loan Index ranged between 390 and 420 basis points (bp) – which aligns with today’s level – the average pricing for the BB tranche was at 699 bp, with the median at 701 bp, as shown in the table below. This data is derived from a sample of 503 deals, managed by 20 US BSL managers, spanning from 2012 to 2023.

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CLO Market Musings: New Issue BB Pricing

Recent primary CLO and reset prints at the BB level suggest that demand for BB is very strong. Anecdotally, it appears that numerous investors in the market have a preference for the risk-return ratio of the BB tranche. The carry is solid, and the BB tranche has demonstrated resilience across various credit cycles.

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Tightest AAA Print Since May 2022

Last week, GoldenTree achieved a notable AAA print of 150 bp, marking the tightest level since May 2022. This achievement can be attributed to the manager’s established track record, its tier-one status, and the strong demand for AAA.

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US BSL CLOs: Latest OC (BB) Test Cushions by Vintage

Excess CCC buckets, defaults, discount obligations, and losses from trading can all reduce the OC ratio. Typically, OC test cushions decrease over time as deals mature. The tables above display the OC (BB) test cushions, segmented by vintage year, based on Intex runs from January 22, 2024, and previously from November 17, 2023.

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League Table: EU CLO Manager AUM (as of 31 December 2023)

Please refer to the table below for a list of EU CLO managers and their assets under management (in billions). In addition, the table indicates the number of years since each manager last priced a primary deal, as of 31 December 2023. Twenty-three managers have not issued a primary deal in over one year, and ten managers have not issued one in over two years.

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Assessing the Hiatus in New Issue Pricing by US CLO Managers

As of December 31, 2023, a notable proportion of the 135 managers, each handling over $0.7 billion in US CLO AUM, have been inactive in pricing new issue deals. Specifically, around 40% of these managers have not priced a primary deal in the last six months. In addition, a quarter of them have not engaged in such pricing for over a year, while approximately 15% have remained inactive in this regard for the past two years.

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